One of soccer's favorite clichés is that poor refereeing decisions even themselves out of the season. It's often uttered by players and managers in post-match interviews as a form of consolation when their team has been on the end of a particularly bad call.
Fans of the affected club are usually a little less diplomatic, while some will even believe there is a conspiracy against their club that includes anyone from just the officials themselves to the entire federation.
But the general consensus is that referees do a decent job given the difficult nature and high pressure of their task and more considered pundits believe that luck is just an unquantifiable variable that can be the difference between failure and success.
But what if you could quantify luck and even put a price on it? That’s what Intel, ESPN and the University of Bath have attempted to do using data analytics.
ESPN Luck Index
A team of researchers including former referee Peter Walton analyzed footage from every single match in England’s Premier League last season to determine contentious decisions such as disallowed or deflected goals and incorrectly awarded penalties. Other decisions included goals scored in injury time that overran and red card incidents.
This data was then put into a predictive model powered by 8th Generation Intel Core processors and Optane memory devices to create a new Premier League table based on what would have happened if luck was taken out of the equation.
“The ESPN Luck Index powered by Intel analysed more than 150 incidents throughout the season, and used data ranging from recent form and team strength to game state and home advantage,” explained Thomas Curran, Assistant Professor at the University of Bath.
“Then we simulated each game thousands of times to model how it should have turned out – it is one of the most detailed pieces of research we have ever conducted.”
Contrasting fortunes
According to the ESPN Luck Index, Manchester United was the luckiest team in the league, gaining six points in their favour over the course of the season. In the real table it finished in second place with 81 points, but in the alternative standings, it finished fourth with 75 points.
Meanwhile, Liverpool was the least lucky. It finished fourth with 75 points, but in the luck-adjusted table, the club swapped places with United to finish in second with 87 points.
The fact the two teams are great rivals does little to dissuade the conspiracy theorists, but perhaps it gives a value to manager mind games.
Only five teams maintained the same positions, although with different points totals – Manchester City (1st), Tottenham Hotspur (3rd), Burnley (7th), Crystal Palace (11th) and West Brom (20th). The biggest loser was Stoke, which would have avoided relegation if luck wasn’t a factor and Huddersfield would have made an immediate return to the league below.
For the other teams, the difference in position can mean tens of millions of dollars in prize money.
Data analytics has infiltrated just about every part of soccer, including training, sports science, youth development and tactical analysis. So, it's perhaps no surprise that the discipline has eventually found its way into refereeing decisions.
“Technology is becoming more valuable than ever in the sports industry,” declared Scott Gillingham, Intel’s eSports and gaming lead for the U.K. “With the Index’s sophisticated formula, run on Intel’s most powerful processors, Bath University was able to quickly and efficiently evaluate vast amounts of data to reveal the results announced today.”
VAR reaching consequences
Of course, another form of technology can help reduce the number of mistakes - Video Assisted Referees (VAR). VAR was trialled in last season’s FA Cup and has been used in a number of leagues around the world, but a series of controversial incidents led the Premier League to delay its implementation until at least the 2019-2020 season.
However, despite concerns VAR would have a detrimental impact on the 2018 FIFA World Cup, but their use was one of the successes of the tournament, an unexpected development which makes the Premier League decision look a little short-sighted.
“The results of the ESPN Luck Index powered by Intel demonstrate the impact and importance of refereeing decisions on a game,” suggested Walton. “With the Premier League deciding not to introduce VAR for the coming season, it is interesting to see how much luck plays a part in the way the league unfolds.”
